Denim and Jeanswear Demand Shows No Sign of Fading
Denim and jeanswear demand shows no sign of fading 18/5/2009 The denim and jeanswear market is traditionally one of the industry’s most vibrant sectors, embracing different age, fashion and commodity brackets. But how will it fare amid the current economic downturn and beyond? This is one of the main focuses of a new report from just-style, which offers two different forecasts for the future. Given the uncertainties of recession, the latest edition of just-style’s report ‘Global market review of the denim and jeanswear industries – forecasts to 2016’ contains not one, but two scenarios for the sector’s future.
The short-term outlook for the denim jeans market is based on a positive view of world demand for denim and jeans, and predicts a 4. 8% growth in the market between 2008 and 2012. In US dollar terms, this translates as a rise of US$2,486m from US$51,749m to reach US$54,235m, with volume growth outstripping value as average worldwide prices fall. However, an alternative and more pessimistic scenario produced by just-style effectively sets the industry back by three years.
This is based on the world market being US$3bn lower than original forecasts in 2009 – leading to growth of 10% between 2008 and 2016 instead of the 11. 7% originally forecast. The long-term future Looking ahead to 2016, the denim jeans market has a rosy future, the report says. And for the first time it separates its forecasts for the value, market share and population of the jeans retail market by region and sub-region. Dollar growth will be 6. 6% between 2012 and 2016, while unit growth will be 7. %. This is a direct consequence of the shift in the market away from developed countries and towards the rest of the world. Even the more pessimistic long-term scenario sees North American consumption flat at 35%, a 5% rise in the jeans market value in Japan and South Korea, and a dramatic 23% jump in the US dollar value of the jeans market in the rest of the world. The only blip is a 2% drop in Europe’s share of world consumption to 35%. Report coverage
The just-style report also looks at the distribution of both brands and retail own label, and their relative prices. The denim jeans industry is composed of national and international retailers, global and regional jeans brands, and of manufacturers in lower-cost countries, whose names are unknown to the consumer, but important to the industry. And it studies the supply side of the industry, the manner in which different brands position themselves – and whether companies’ attitudes to consumers and to retail are likely to change as a result of the credit crunch.
Changes will affect both distribution and the supply chain, the report says, in particular the future nature of international strategic alliances within this most global of branded clothing sectors. Product, market and distribution trends According to just-style’s report, the denim and jeanswear market is at a cross roads. But it believes that after five years in which premium brands at high prices encroached somewhat on the mid-priced mass market, the credit crunch may reverse this.
In order to counter this, brands will resort to a number of marketing strategies, which may include shifting brand position; staying true to their roots; creating celebrity themes; concentrating on customer loyalty; and fighting on price. For many brands, the secret was seen to be integrating forward into retail. Now, just-style believes it is more likely to be the internet (clicks), than physical shops (bricks). In today’s recessionary situation, property does not appear the most likely investment for a jeans business.