General election

8 August 2016

In what will be one of India’s most keenly watched Lok Sabha elections, the only declared prime ministerial candidate is pitted against many more hopefuls. With the congress shying away from naming a nominee for the top post although it is not necessary as per Indian constitution. It forms one of the basic necesscity for voters to know who will rule them after election. As the election champaign is heating up every party is pullling all their strings to deliever better music to gather people. Irrespective of who becomes India’s next prime minister, one man has ruled himself out of the race: incumbent Manmohan Singh.

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Rise of the 3rd world: On February 25, the third front – comprising seven regional and four left-leaning parties – declared itself an “alternative” to the dominance of India’s two main parties: the incumbent Congress and the opposition BJP. .The third front consists of a number of India’s regional big-hitters: Nitish Kumar (chief minister of Bihar), Jayalalitha (chief minister of Tamil Nadu), Naveen Patnaik (chief minister of Odisha) and H. D. D. Gowda, the 11th prime minister of India. A third front has long been an elusive project, and only once has a non-Congress, non-BJP formation succeeded at the national level.

In 1977 Indians voted in the Janata Dal government in protest against the Congress party for Indira’s Gandhi’s declaration of a draconian national emergency. The few other non-Congress and non-BJP governments that came to office since then have either been supported by, or ultimately fell because of, the two main parties. Hidden ethics of Indian Politics: Coalition building in India has tended to follow a set sequence: all sides wait to see how the electoral cards fall before jostling to forge alliances and form a government.

The audacious declaration of a third front, months before the election, suggests that its members have confidence in the front’s prospects. The Herald of change: As India prepares for the general election, there is a growing sense of a need for a new kind of politics. The BJP presents itself as a bold development-driven alternative to the neo-socialism of Congress, with no clue about Third alternative manifesto and the newly formed AAP’s anti-establishment ethos resonates with those that have become disillusioned by Indian politics and it can be realized that AAP may not swing an election in it’s very first outing.

But, it surely can affect some manifesto. Comman man’s influence: If AAP gets more than 50 seats in Loksabha elections, it will be clear that government can’t be formed without them, and any party which wants AAP’s support can’t buy them the way it does with other parties. AAP will have clear condition of passing at least 2 bills Janlokpal & Swaraj, and both Conress & BJP know after their resignation from Delhi’s government, that AAP will not compromise on this issue, so their is no point of making the promise and not passing it once the government is formed.

If these two bills are passed, those who know about these two concepts know that it will put a check on both big ticket corruption (by Lokpal bill) and lower level corruption (by Swaraj). So, I think this time BJP shouldn’t repeat the same mistake that they did in Delhi by not responding to the letter sent by Kejriwal (in which he sent the agenda on which coalition can be formed) . If this time BJP repeats the same and Congress accepts this condition, it will be BJP’s mistake and not AAP’s fif UPA comes in power. The forecast: The most favourable possible outcomes Assumption: AAP wins more than 50 seats Case 1: NDA + 3 front – THE AVENGERS – Will be equipped and developed to handle Demi-God and aliens too. If BJP wins more than 160 it can climb the seat with a little assistance. Case 2: 3 front + APP – THE JUSTICE LEAGUE What fedration wants but exist only in toon form. Case 3: UPA + APP – THE TRANSFORMERS We will require someone from other universe to save India. Conclusion: The third front’s electoral clout of this cross-country, however, is unclear: though each enjoys powerful support within their own states, whether their collective vote bases will be sufficient for success at the national level is uncertain.

The AAP’s denial of a BJP victory in Delhi – and the possibility of the AAP doing the same in other urban centers – means the BJP’s success at the national level cannot be guaranteed. It will hardly make any difference which party comes in power among Congress & BJP, BJP seems just a bit better than Congress, may be because when it was in power, there was no media to report their corruption the way it does today (thankfully), moreover in states like Gujarat, media is stopped from reporting corruption cases in detail by acts like “Gujarat Lokayukt Act 2013”.

So, unless and until BJP bringing some changes in this regards, they don’t make a difference. I’m okay with little lower GDP, and less land acquired from farmers, than to have a corrupt government. Either way, having AAP a strong power in Indian politics and having control on the government will be a good thing for the democracy of India.

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