Questions and Answers on Contagious Diseases

6 June 2016

DATA TABLES: DISEASE

LESSON 1

Lesson 1: Step 1 Population Number Starting Number of Contagious People Sick Days Reported Contagious Contagion Rate Prediction 200 5 60 5 0.5 Simulation Run 1 600 3 51 0 0.1 Simulation Run 2 600 3 85 0 1.0 Simulation Run 3 600 3 28 0 0.0

Lesson 1: Step 2 Population Number Population Density Starting Number of Contagious People Sick Days Reported Contagious Contagion Rate Prediction 1 (low) 125 Low 5 90 250 1.5 Simulation Run 1 200 Low 3 340 3 1.7 Simulation Run 2 200 Low 3 366 2 1.8 Simulation Run 3 200 Low 3 474 3 2.4 Prediction 2 (high) 490 high 5 2000 20 7.0 Simulation Run 1 900 High 3 3661 3 4.1 Simulation Run 2 900 High 3 4002 3 4.4 Simulation Run 3 900 High 3 4121 1 4.6

Responses to Questions: 1. No, the number gets lower each time we run the simulator. More vaccines and people develop stronger immune system. Also it might depend on the disease that the population had to face. 2. It would be about 0.1 per capita

1. First it is much cheaper to prevent people from getting infected because the infection can be contained very easily. In high density population it is very hard to contain the disease for the amount of citizens that live there and the contact that they have with each other. It is much expensier to developed drugs because of the high amount of population that needs dosage. 2. Its 6.5 per capita

Notes:

DATA TABLES: DISEASE

LESSON 2

Lesson 2: Step 1 Population Number Population Density Starting Number of Contagious People Sick Days Reported Contagious Dead Prediction (medium/medium) 600 600 5 600 40 30 Simulation Run 1 600 Medium 3 1455 0 8 Simulation Run 2 600 medium 3 1496 0 10 Simulation Run 3 600 Medium 3 1494 0 10

Lesson 2: Step 2 Population Mixing Population Density Starting Number of Contagious People Percentage of Population Affected Sick Days Reported Contagious Prediction 1 (medium/medium) Low Medium 3 20% 500 5 Simulation Run 1 Medium Medium 3 1.5% 1094 0 Simulation Run 2 Medium Medium 3 1.7% 956 0 Simulation Run 3 Medium Medium 3 1.7% 1022 0 Predication 2 (high/high) Medium High 3 2.6% 2000 7 Simulation Run 1 High High 3 2.6% 2330 0 Simulation Run 2 High High 3 3% 2305 0 Simulation Run 3 High High 3 3.2% 2362 0

Responses to Questions: 1. My prediction was wrong, well first because a disease can be very unpredictable so the chances of my prediction to have been accurate were very slim.

2.None died on average on Virgin Field.

3.Well if the disease isn’t dealt in a much faster way it will spread and it will kill most of the population and that is something the government doesn’t want to happen. First you will quarantine the area of the outbreak and find subject zero to try to cure the disease, also speed will be more important and a lot of trials from those who are sick which may lead to experimentation.

4.No because the population is of 600 and the maximum death toll was 15 people in one of the trial that is not an alarming state, when 30 to 40 percent of the population is killed by the disease than that is an alarming stage and should be put in state of emergency.

1.It reduces the sick days very quickly. You will need maybe a 90% even higher. When there is vaccine there are more people immune to the sickness. The sickness doesn’t get transmitted quickly and reduces the number of people who were contaminated. Thus, reducing the sick days. In order to do it needs to be at least has to be 75%.

2. The less the density and the mixing the less sick days there are as well as death tolls. When using vaccinations, more people are immune to the sickness which will prevent from the sickness to spread quickly. When you change the mixing and population density, it can either decrease or increase the spreading of the sickness. For example, if there is a high population density, the disease will spread faster but, if there is little population density, the spreading of the disease can be slower.

Notes:

DATA TABLES: DISEASE

LESSON 3

Lesson 3: Step 1 Population Mixing Population Density Percent Vaccinated/ C-Virus Used Starting Number of Contagious People Sick Days Reported Contagious Immune Dead Prediction 1 (low/low) Low low 0% 3 400 25 50 20 Simulation Run 1 Low low 0% 3 216 44 24 8 Simulation Run 2 Low low 0% 3 178 6 33 2 Simulation Run 3 low low 0% 3 160 7 18 5 Prediction 2 (high/high) High High 0% 3 1590 44 50 45 Simulation Run 1 High high 0% 3 4375 0 900 0 Simulation Run 2 high high 0% 3 4535 0 900 0 Simulation Run 3 high high 0% 3 4434 0 900 0

Lesson 3: Step 2 Population Mixing Population Density Percent Vaccinated/ C-Virus Used Starting Number of Contagious People Percentage of Population Affected Sick Days Reported Dead Prediction medium medium 0.5% 5 3.5 per capita 483 10 Simulation Run 1 (slow) medium medium 0.5% 4 4.8 per capita 2857 0 Simulation Run 2 medium medium 0.5% 6 4.5 per capita 2900 3 Simulation Run 3 medium medium 0.5% 6 4.8 per capita 3052 1 Simulation Run 1 (mid) medium medium 0.5% 6 2.7 per capita 1685 0 Simulation Run 2 medium medium 0.5% 8 2.9 per capita 1814 1 Simulation Run 3 medium medium 0.5% 8 3.1 per capita 483 1 Simulation Run 1 (fast) medium medium 0.5% 7 1.0 per capita 2857 1 Simulation Run 2 medium medium 0.5% 10 1.0 per capita 2900 0 Simulation Run 3 medium medium 0.5% 10 1.0 per capita 3052 1

Responses to Questions: 1. The urban would be considered epidemic. Because in urban areas there is a high population density and mixing so the spreading of the disease is faster than the rural areas where there is less population density and mixing. Some precautionary measures could be sanitation. While rural there isn’t a need to establish a quarantine zone but they do need to get a cure for the disease before it spreads. Better sanitation leads to slower spreading of the disease.

2. Some environmental factors could be the climate. Usually in the summer disease spread much faster unlike in winter in which most diseases die because of the cold. Once, the virus or the bacteria are outside of the body, it might die because of the climate. The virus might be living in rivers or lakes, this can cause other fish animals to get contaminated by the disease. Maybe the counter-virus could be immune to any climate, or it might kill counter-viruses depending on the climate.

3. I believe that counter-viruses can be used to fight diseases intern

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